Business Cycle & Economics Blog of Caleb Lawrence
Stocks look to end the year on a high note despite little market moving data today. A review of the prospects for retail in the New Year following a dismal Christmas shopping season appears bleak indeed. As industry studies expect 200,000 additional store closings in 2009 as the recession deepens. Consulting firm AlixPartners predicts that [...]
Stocks managed modest gains into the final hour on little news. The latest Case/Schiller Home Price Index recorded a record 18% annualized drop in October as prices fell 2.2% from the previous month. This release puts real estate prices back to 2004 levels. Prices fell the most in Las Vegas, Phoenix, San Francisco, LA, San [...]
Stocks fell to begin the week on thin news so I thought we would revisit the Alt-A or Option ARM Mortgage reset wave due to begin in earnest next summer in light of the recent sharp reductions in the Federal Funds Rate and suggestions that open market bond purchases by the Fed will push mortgage [...]
For the Christmas Holiday shortened week the DOW has closed down 105 points or a little over 1% while the NASDAQ has lost 37 points or a bit over 2%. Based on survey data from Freddie Mac dating back to 1971, 30-year mortgage rates have hit an all time low of just 5.14%, while the [...]
Stocks slipped in morning trade on disappointing news. New and existing home sales plunged again in November, existing home sales fell 10.6% from a year ago, a 11-year low, while the price dropped 13.2% the largest decline on record, so much for real estate never goes down. New home sales fell 35.3% from a year [...]
Stocks struggled to begin the week on little real news. Walgreen’s numbers miss is just the latest data point in a string of disappointing retail related data as the financial condition of your average American consumer continues to deteriorate. A study by the Associated Press has found that banks have awarded nearly 1.6 billion in [...]
Stocks started well on the auto bailout news only to slip late, for the week the DOW is on track to gain about .75% while the NASDAQ looks to add roughly 3%.The ECRI Weekly leading Index increased to 106.2 as the smoothed annualized gained to –30% though overall the Index continues its cliff like plunge [...]
After opening higher stock slipped late and look to finish about even with an hour to go. There is little real news today. Initial claims for unemployment fell slightly during the latest week but remain over 500,000, while the 4-week moving average reached a 26-year high of 543,750. Unemployment claims for December, so far, paint [...]
Stocks struggled in early trade unable to build on yesterdays oversized rate cut inspired gains. A quick review of the statement accompanying yesterdays’ interest rate cut showed a Fed growing increasingly worried about the deteriorating economic conditions and a lack of progress in alleviating the impairment of the financial markets and specifically the persistently tight [...]
Stocks rose ahead of the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting on interest rates that in a surprise move saw the Fed cut rates .75%, lowering the Fed Funds Rate to just .25% More evidence of deflation arrived with the November Consumer Price Index as it fell 1.7% the largest monthly drop on record, reducing [...]
Hi and welcome to The Profit Motive, I’m your host Caleb Lawrence. Once upon a time in America the media acted as the watchdog of the corporations and the state. In the modern era it’s all about ratings and profits, opinion has been substituted for news and frequently is presented as fact. Much like my daily radio show on KPIG 107.5 FM in Santa Cruz California and KPYG FM 94.9 Cayucos/San Luis Obispo California. A thousand Blogs were able to spot the current problems and many began discussing it years before it reached crises proportions. While there were exceptions, and these exceptions are becoming more common, the mainstream media failed to get it and largely continue to do so.
