Business Cycle & Economics Blog of Caleb Lawrence
Stocks struggled to begin the week on disappointing data and yet another big financial fraud as the Bernard Madoff story has legs. Industrial Production fell .6% in November and is tracking a 10% annualized 4th quarter decline. The NAHB Index remained unchanged at a record low of 9 for December. While the latest TIC Report [...]
Volatile early trade following the Senate failure of the auto bailout package finds the major averages about even with an hour to go. The latest MARTS report on retail sales shows a 5th consecutive monthly decline, the longest in 16 years, as sales fell 1.8% in December. It looks like the old maxim, “never bet [...]
With an hour to go the major averages look to close the week up a little less than 1%. With about a month to go in King George’s second term the red ink is set to about double over the last 8-years to a bit over 8 Trillion not quite as impressive as Reagan’s tripling [...]
Stocks started well in early trade but are now about even with an hour to go on little economic news. The Unified Federal Budget Deficit hit 164 Billion in October as the various special credit facilities continue to push substantial deficits. Over the last several months’ elements of my industry have pushed the sale of [...]
Despite apparent consensus on a 15 billion Dollar bailout for the big 3 automakers stocks slipped into the red on little real news in early trade. There are however 2 interesting real estate related studies out. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency released a report that clearly shows mortgage modification fails in the [...]
Market action late last week and to begin this week drives home the idea that the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. The economic reports of late were a disaster, yet stocks rose nicely despite over ½ a million lost jobs, data indicating that 4th quarter GDP is tracking a decline [...]
Stocks managed to shrug off dismal economic data for the second time this week heading into the close with decent gains. Since Monday the DOW has given up about 275 points, roughly 3%, while the NASDAQ looks to finish about even. Today’s employment report came in considerably worse than expected as the economy lost 533,000 [...]
Stocks struggled in early trade despite a lack of significant news. Retail sales figures remain weak, while the parade of corporate layoffs continues, AT&T announced 12,000 job cuts this morning amongst others. Factory Orders fell the most in 8-years, dropping 5.1% while the number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits reached a 26-year high of 4.09 [...]
Stocks hold modest gains into the final hour despite dissapointing news. The ISM or Institute for Supply Management Services Index that represents roughly 80% of total economic activity fell a much larger than expected 7.1 points to a record low of just 37.3 in November indicating sharp contraction for the services sector and yet more [...]
After a weak opening stocks moved higher only to fade late on thin news. The big three auto companies are back at the trough trying to engineer their own Fed bailout in what is a dammed if they do and dammed if they don’t dilemma for the Fed. As one would expect given the current [...]
Hi and welcome to The Profit Motive, I’m your host Caleb Lawrence. Once upon a time in America the media acted as the watchdog of the corporations and the state. In the modern era it’s all about ratings and profits, opinion has been substituted for news and frequently is presented as fact. 
