Business Cycle & Economics Blog of Caleb Lawrence
Stocks struggled to begin the week and enter the final hour with modest losses on a lack of real news though much is being made of Dubai’s refusal to guarantee the debt of Dubai World. The one point worth noting here is that frequently the catalyst for reversal of unsustainable market trends that are divorced [...]
An interesting take on the perceived morality of walking away from one’s mortgage. Given the banks behavior of late I can’t help but think that what is good for the goose is also good for the gander. Break chains of mortgage morality, lawyer says Go ahead. Break the chains. Stop paying on your mortgage if [...]
Stocks struggled into the final hour with modest gains. We have a number of economic reports today though none are particularly significant. The ECRI Weekly Leading index increased to 128.8 while the smoothed annualized growth rate fell again, dropping .8 to 24.1 its 4th consecutive decline. The MBA Applications Index slipped to 601 last week [...]
Stocks entered the final hour about even following a morning of volatile trade. The first revision to 3rd quarter GDP brought it down to 2.8% from the originally reported 3.5%, as expected. The WSJ took a look at mortgages and concluded that some 23% or 5.3 million US households are underwater on their mortgage. A [...]
Stock rose sharply from the open on supposedly better than expected economic data. The Fed’s Chicago National Activity Index slipped to –1.08 in October while the 3-month moving average fell to -.91. A very good predictor of recessions, since 1967 the 3-month average has slipped below .7 on seven different occasions, six of those coincided [...]
Stocks marked modest losses into the final hour. Since Monday the DOW has gained about 40 points or bit less then a ½%. The NASDAQ has given up a little over 30 points or some 1.5%. The ECRI weekly leading index continues to slip and the trend is accelerating with a 1.1 point loss in [...]
Stocks struggled from the open on a lack of real news. The latest estimates on residential real estate foreclosure activity from the MBA or Mortgage Bankers Association, 3rd Quarter 2009 National Delinquency Survey are grim. MBA Chief Economist Jay Brinkmann stated during the conference call that foreclosures are clearly moving into Prime loans, including fixed [...]
Stocks struggled in early trade on disappointing news. The October CPI advanced .3% but remains .2% lower than a year ago. Higher energy prices were a big factor along with vehicle prices, one of the side effects of the cash for clunkers program. The MBA weekly index fell 2.5% to 611.7 as both refis, down [...]
Volatile trade leaves the major averages about even with an hour to go. The September TIC showed foreigners remain willing to finance our deficits and invest in America as Treasury and equity buying both registered strong gains for the month. In fact the September net capital flows exceeded the trade deficit by 4.2 billion in [...]
Stocks advanced nicely from the open on supposedly better economic data. Retail sales gained 1.4% in October, much better than the 1% gain expected. Interestingly most of the gain was driven by motor vehicle and parts, despite the end of the Cash for Clunkers program, subtract this category and retails sales only gained .2%. The [...]
Hi and welcome to The Profit Motive, I’m your host Caleb Lawrence. Once upon a time in America the media acted as the watchdog of the corporations and the state. In the modern era it’s all about ratings and profits, opinion has been substituted for news and frequently is presented as fact. 
