Increasingly I’m of the opinion that we are going to do Credit Bust 2.0 in 2010 because of commercial loans and also the Option ARM and Alt-A residential loans categories. This article address the commercial aspects of this problem.
If You Thought the Housing Meltdown Was Bad…
Three guesses who were among the significant buyers of CMBS. If you said banks, banks, and more banks, you got it. Thus these folks are sitting not only on their own malperforming loans, but on a whole lot of everyone else’s toxic junk, too.
This is how bad conduits are: A 3% default rate last year jumped to 6% in 2009 and is expected to double again, to 12%, in 2010. An entity that takes a 12% hit to its portfolio – and this includes countless banks, pension and annuity funds, international institutional investors, and others – is in deep, deep trouble.
The real tsunami is coming, probably in the second quarter of 2010, Andy estimates. Because that’s when banks will have to start preparing for the wave of mortgages that were written near the market top and are maturing in 2011-12. Unlike home loans, commercial loans tend to be relatively short-term in nature (average 5-7 years), because – outside of apartment building loans backed by Fannie or Freddie – there are no government programs to subsidize longer-term ones. These guys mature in bunches.
According to a recent Deutsche Bank presentation, the delinquency rate on commercial loans as of the end of 2Q09 was greater than 4%. Of these, they expect that north of 70% will not qualify for refinancing. Imagine what will happen to the estimated $2 trillion in commercial mortgages that mature between now and 2013.
Source:
EFAM, Escape From America Magazine
By Doug Hornig, Casey Research / Nov 09
If You Thought the Housing Meltdown Was Bad…
Hi and welcome to The Profit Motive, I’m your host Caleb Lawrence. Once upon a time in America the media acted as the watchdog of the corporations and the state. In the modern era it’s all about ratings and profits, opinion has been substituted for news and frequently is presented as fact. Much like my daily radio show on KPIG 107.5 FM in Santa Cruz California and KPYG FM 94.9 Cayucos/San Luis Obispo California. A thousand Blogs were able to spot the current problems and many began discussing it years before it reached crises proportions. While there were exceptions, and these exceptions are becoming more common, the mainstream media failed to get it and largely continue to do so.
