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KPIG Radio January 25

Stocks hold modest gains into the final hour despite a disappointing existing home sales report that saw a much larger than expected drop of 16.7% to 5.45 million units annualized. Inventory increased to 7.2 months while the median price fell 12.4% last year worse than the 8% decline in 2008 and registering the largest annual drop on record. As expected the numbers were skewed by the homebuyer tax credit and will have to wait until summer to get the real picture, assuming no additional government intervention. Though affordability has improved substantially the fundamentals for housing will remain bleak until the employment and foreclosure numbers improve.

Despite the finance sector and its efforts at deregulation proving significant factors in the current crises. Said finance sector remains on the offensive, and it is, using the World Economic Form in Davos as a venue to push for softer reforms following Obama’s proposal to rein in the banks.

It’s a big week for economic data that culminates with the 4th quarter GDP report on Friday. Expectations are that this preliminary number will be quite hot at +4.5%. Largely due to inventory restocking, a common factor coming out of recessions but as Paul Krugman warned, beware the statistical blip. Because the data increasingly points to the recession retuning later this year, if in fact it ever left.

Another 5 banks went to the receivers Friday; Columbia River Bank, Oregon; Evergreen Bank, Washington; Charter Bank, New Mexico; Bank of Leeton, Missouri and Premier American Bank, Florida. The latest credit card delinquency data from Fitch’s Ratings reports an all time high of 4.54% while chargeoffs hit 10.68% but remain below the record seen in September 2009.

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