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25% Chinese Tariffs
The Market Bull 2019

 
 
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The Market Bull – February 13, 2019

The major averages struggled to hold their early advances closing today with small gains. Rumors continue to swirl about resolutions to the looming government shutdown Friday and the rapidly approaching 25% Chinese tariff deadline of March 1st. Color me skeptical on both subjects.

The Mortgage Bankers Association reports that its weekly mortgage activity index fell 3.7% last week despite lower interest rates.

Refi’s declined .1% while purchase apps dropped 6.1%. The 30-year contract rate for a jumbo loan slipped fractionally to 4.48%.

The Consumer Price Index or CPI was unchanged in January on another large decline in energy prices after they fell for a 3rd month.

On a year ago basis the CPI slipped to just 1.5%, or about half of its long term average. For the record low inflation implies weak demand, or too little money chasing too many goods.

Serious auto loan delinquencies hit a nearly 7-year high in the 4th quarter of last year when they reached 4.47% of all loans outstanding.

A figure just .6% below the all-time high delinquency rate set during the peak of the last crisis at the beginning of 2011. Record debt and near record delinquencies and yet the official story is that the economy is humming along, and everything is just great.

Standard and Poors 500 Index closed at: 2,753.03 up 8.30
NASDAQ finished the day: 7,420.38 up 5.76
Gold ended trading at: $1,309.20 down $4.80

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