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Registered Investment Adviser Caleb Lawrence

Despite little real news, rising geo-political tensions and a growing cyber war the major averages begin the week with decent gains.

The National Association of Home Builders or NAHB confidence index gained 2 points in May to 70. Two of the three components advanced and strength was particularly notable in the South at 71 and the West at 78.

The New York Fed regional index missed expectations substantially in May falling 6 points to -1. New orders were particularly weak coming in at -4.4.

Some of the late stage Dot-Com bubble features were a number of very large companies that featured no earnings, or even estimates of earnings anytime soon and yet they sported incredibly high valuations, because it was supposedly different this time. Another very prominent late stage bubble feature was that the markets became incredibly narrow pushed higher by fewer, and fewer companies. Fast forward to the present and we have an almost identical set of features. Rapidly narrowing participation. Marquee names that haven’t made a profit and aren’t expected to anytime soon like Tesla, Uber and Snap, to name a few. Well, as they say, history may not repeat but it often rhymes.


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