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Registered Investment Adviser Caleb Lawrence


A wild week sent the Standard and Poors 500 Index into the final hour about even since Monday, while the NASDAQ looks to finish the week down about a ½%, following another late fade.

Today’s big employment miss with the Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting just 98,000 new jobs in March far less than the 180,000 expected. Nonetheless the official unemployment rate fell .2% to 4.5% as less folks were looking for work. Average weekly hours were unchanged at 34.3. Hourly earnings increased by 0.2%, bringing the year-over-year gain to 2.7%. Disappointing but 1-month does not make a trend. The 3-month moving average of 178,000 new jobs remains decent despite March reporting the lowest jobs total since May of last year. January and February were revised lower by a combined 38,000, the lamestream media was quick to blame the weather as is their usual habit.

Wholesale inventories gained .4% in February and 3.2% on a year ago basis. Sales advanced .6% for the month with the inventory to sales ratio stable at 1.28. Today’s reports led to the Atlanta Fed 1st quarter GDP Now model getting cut to just .6%, high frequency economics estimates .8% growth for the quarter. The lowest figures since early 2014.


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