The Market Bull – October 28, 2019
The major averages begin the week with modest gains on news of a Brexit extension and decent earnings results, closing with new record highs.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index plunged .6 points in September to -.45. Three of the four subcomponents declined and all four were negative for the month. A volatile series the 3-month moving average slipped to -.24, its 8th consecutive month in the red. -.7 for this series is generally considered a recession.
The International Trade in Goods Balance declined slightly in September to -70.4 billion. Exports fell 1.6% to 135.9 billion. Imports slipped 2.3% to 206.3 billion. The sizable drops in exports and imports are notable, however, especially considering that both are down substantially from a year earlier. Declining trade flows are generally considered a bad sign.
Wholesale Inventories fell .3% in September while Retail Inventories gained .3% for the month. Wholesale non-durable inventories were particularly weak falling .7%. That said inventories remain bloated and need to be reduced, something that will drag on economic growth going forward.
The Texas regional manufacturing index fell 6.6 points in October to -5.1, a 4th negative reading in the last 6-months. Weakness was noted in new orders, production and employment.
Standard and Poors 500 Index closed at: 3,039.42 up 16.87
NASDAQ finished the day: 8,325.99 up 82.87
Gold ended trading at: $1,495.80 down $9.50