The Market Bull – September 30, 2019
The major averages closed with modest gains to begin the week on little real news. It appears the Trump administration is facing potentially insurmountable challenges.
The risk of recession in 6-months was unchanged in August at 13%, matching a 10-month low. As one would expect the biggest downside risk to the economy is the escalation in trade tensions between the U.S. and China. At the regional level Mountain was number 1 with a 14.6% chance of recession, the Middle Atlantic was the lowest at 12%, the Pacific region came in at 13.8%.
The Texas Regional Manufacturing Index slipped 1.2 points to a barely positive 1.5 in September on weakness in production and new orders. Employment improved; price data jumped.
In shades of 2007 house flipper lending hit a 13-year high in the 2nd quarter with lending volume up 31% to 8.4 billion on a year ago basis according to ATTOM Data Solutions. The highest level since the third quarter of 2006. Simply another metric illustrating the Fed’s success in re blowing the housing bubble, let’s hope it’s different this time.
Standard and Poors 500 Index closed at: 2,976.74 up 14.95
NASDAQ finished the day: 7,999.34 up 59.71
Gold ended trading at: $1,476.50 down $17.90