Retail sales jumped 1.3% in April to handily beat expectations, on a year ago basis sales advanced 3%. Strength was seen in autos, Gasoline and Apparel. The Atlanta Fed GDP Now model jumped .6% to 2.8% on the news suggesting that economic growth will return in the 2nd quarter. The New York Fed’s Nowcast is not so optimistic showing 1.2% expected 2nd quarter economic growth. Consumer spending growth expectations jumped to +3.7% on the news. The bond market doesn’t think much of the optimism as yields fell. Additionally, the recent confessionals from retailers including Macy’s and Nordstrom’s to name a few suggest that consumer spending on retail will be weak in the 2nd quarter and is directly at odds with the Atlanta Fed economic growth estimates. Personally I think the risks to the down side for 2nd quarter economic growth outweighs the pluses.
Registered Investment Adviser
216E Mount Hermon Road
Scotts Valley, CA 95066
Local: (831) 334-5318
After nearly 19 years of live radio it was time to move on to new projects. My daily economic update was changed to a video format in 2019 and moved to my Business Face Book Page. Or you can call my office 831-334-5318 and take advantage of my still “free” after 20+ years initial consultation. Usually about an hour, will have an opportunity to get to know each other better and address your specific concerns on a one to one basis.