fbpx Accept-Encoding: deflate, gzip

Retail sales jumped 1.3% in April to handily beat expectations, on a year ago basis sales advanced 3%.  Strength was seen in autos, Gasoline and Apparel.  The Atlanta Fed GDP Now model jumped .6% to 2.8% on the news suggesting that economic growth will return in the 2nd quarter.  The New York Fed’s Nowcast is not so optimistic showing 1.2% expected 2nd quarter economic growth.  Consumer spending growth expectations jumped to +3.7% on the news.  The bond market doesn’t think much of the optimism as yields fell.  Additionally, the recent confessionals from retailers including Macy’s and Nordstrom’s to name a few suggest that consumer spending on retail will be weak in the 2nd quarter and is directly at odds with the Atlanta Fed economic growth estimates.  Personally I think the risks to the down side for 2nd quarter economic growth outweighs the pluses.


Enjoy this blog? Please spread the word :)