Market Bull

Major Averages Gain

Major Averages Gain

00:00 / 1:54

The major averages enter the final hour about even, after opening mixed on little real news. Since Monday the Standard and Poors 500 Index has gained 9 points or a little less than a 1/3%, while the NASDAQ has advanced an inconsequential 8 points since Monday.

Despite considerable geo-political instability, more warnings of financial crisis out of Europe and China. A deteriorating political situation here at home inside the beltway and Trumps latest shoot from the hip folly directed at the Federal Reserve is unprecedented executive office interference after the President expressed his dissatisfaction with higher interest rates. Then when your blowing Trillion Dollar plus annual deficits to fund tax handouts to the 10% and corporations, the motivation for lower interest rates becomes painfully obvious.

Regional employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows New England as a real standout for job creation in June, but most regions did quite well, the one laggard being the Pacific region as it struggled to create jobs last month. On a year ago basis the Mountain, West South Central and Pacific regions were the top 3 for job creation.

This is Caleb Lawrence Registered Investment Adviser Scotts Valley Drive and Willis Road in the Scotts Valley Plaza, Suite 202 or call me toll free at 888-RICH PIG / 888-742-4744.

You can catch me on the radio at noon each business day as well on California’s central coast. KPIG 107.5 FM in the Monterey Bay or KPYG 94.9 FM in San Luis Obispo.

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Trade War Talk Fades

Little real data sent the major averages into the final hour with small losses. Trade war talk and various diplomatic blunders fades into the background.

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Construction Activity Stumbles

Housing starts, and permits miss substantially. Mortgage activity continues to slip. Can the economy dodge higher interest rates and a trade war?

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IMF Warns Trump on Trade

Industrial production bounces back in June. The IMF warns that Trumps trade war will shave 430 billion or .5% from global growth, nobody wins.

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Trade War Rhetoric

Trade war rhetoric gets taken up a notch. Retail sales advance solidly for a 4th month in June. New York Fed slips but remains strong.

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Trade Wars are Winnable?

The major averages advance for the week and seem convinced that trade wars are easily winnable, I’m not so sure. Import prices slip on falling energy costs.

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Corporate Buybacks

Debt funded corporate share buybacks, don’t work long-term. Trade wars are bad for business and have significant negative consequences.

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Velocity of Money

Velocity of Money hits a 69-year low of just 1.43 at the end of 2017. Over the same period new debt produced less and less economic growth.

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Consumer Credit Jumps

Major averages jump again. Consumer credit blows out on surging credit card, student and auto loans. Wholesale prices up .5% in May, per the PPI.

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Major averages surge higher

Major averages surge higher to begin the week. Tariff inspired price hikes begin to appear. Low unemployment fails to produce meaningful wage gains.

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Trade War Goes Hot

As the trade war goes hot with tit for tat tariffs with China, Russia adds its own tariffs. Jobs gain 213,000 in June, unemployment rate 4%, details ok.

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Caleb Lawrence

Registered Investment Adviser

5321 Scotts Valley Drive
Suite #202
Scotts Valley, CA 95066

Toll Free: (888) 742-4744
Local: (831) 334-5318

Listen to Caleb’s daily market commentary on California’s Central Coast every business day at 12 noon, KPIG 107.5 FM in the Monterey Bay or KPYG 94.9 FM in San Luis Obispo.