Market Bull

Stocks Spooked

Stocks Spooked
The Market Bull 2018

 
 
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The Market Bull – November 19, 2018

Some harsh trade war rhetoric between the US and China to begin the week. Along with reported substantial order reductions for the new I-phone. Combined to spook the markets, as they begin the week with substantial losses. Crypto currencies get hammered again as Bitcoin breaks below $5,000. There’s little economic news today.

E-Commerce or internet sales continue their steady march higher gaining 3.1% in the 3rd quarter to 130.9 billion, a 39th consecutive quarterly advance for the series.

The National Association of Home Builders or NAHB Index plunged 8 points to 60 in November. All regions saw substantial declines, including the west, current and future expectations all fell notably.

Quite a number of formerly red-hot real estate markets have wobbled considerably of late as sales fall and inventory jumps have been seen in Las Vegas, Seattle, and Vancouver British Columbia to name a few. Of late the Bay Area is starting to show some fatigue as well with sales down 8% in October on a year ago basis, inventory for sale is up 21% from a year ago as well. Not too dramatic and it’s worth noting that inventory is still very low by historical standards. That said the trend with real estate, like the stock markets and high tech seem to be changing, and not for the better.

Standard and Poors 500 Index closed at: 2,690.73 down 45.54
NASDAQ finished the day: 7,028.48 down 219.40
Gold ended trading at: $1,224.60 up $1.60

This is Caleb Lawrence Registered Investment Adviser I can be reached directly 831-334-5318 or stop by my office 5321 Scotts Valley Drive and Willis Road in the Scotts Valley Plaza, Suite 202, Scotts Valley, Ca, 95066.

Rebroadcasts, additional writings, and other entries are also available on my Blog at www.clinvestments.com

Advisory services offered through Caleb Lawrence Registered Investment Adviser Inc.

Stocks Down Again

The major averages end another volatile week in the red. Industrial production misses. September TIC flows +30.8 billion, stocks sold off again.

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Stocks Gain

The major averages shrugged off their early losses to finish with modest gains. Retails sales gain .8%. Trade prices increase. Oil cost data doesn’t add up.

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Tech and Crypto Fall

The major averages couldn’t hold their early gains closing with modest losses. CPI gains in October but the numbers don’t add up, just like the PPI.

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Oil Goes Bear

Stock finish a volatile day mixed. Debt does indeed matter. Deficit spending crowds out productive investment and produces dangerous asset bubbles.

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Tech Gets Hit Again

In terms of dollars, the FANGMAN stocks have lost $710 billion from their combined market cap peak on August 31, having plunged 15.3% from $4.63 trillion to $3.92 trillion

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Debt Does Matter

Contrary to popular beliefs, debt does matter. When debt growth consistently exceeds economic growth over time the result is 3 consecutive destabilizing asset bubbles.

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Large Losses

The major averages plunged to begin the week on little news. Q-3 Senior Loan Officer Survey shows loosening standards and slowing demand.

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Trade Wars Hurt

The major averages finish another volatile week with small gains. Merrill Lynch shows that trade wars are bad for business. PPI jumps on tariffs.

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LYING IS OK

10-years after the fact and the banksters are still getting sued for fraud and malfeasance related to the last crisis. Worse they are a culture of fraud.

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A Distraction

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Caleb Lawrence

Registered Investment Adviser

5321 Scotts Valley Drive
Suite #202
Scotts Valley, CA 95066

Toll Free: (888) 742-4744
Local: (831) 334-5318

Listen to Caleb’s daily market commentary on California’s Central Coast every business day at 12 noon, KPIG 107.5 FM in the Monterey Bay or KPYG 94.9 FM in San Luis Obispo.