Market Bull

Modest Gains

Modest Gains
The Market Bull 2019

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The Market Bull – August 21, 2019

The major averages closed with modest gains on mixed data. The Congressional Budget Office warns that tariffs could crimp economic growth.

The Mortgage Bankers Association reports that mortgage activity fell .9% last week as refi’s advanced for a 4th week up .4% while purchase apps slipped 3.5% as this component continues to struggle. The 30-year contract rate for a jumbo loan was unchanged at 3.88%.

Existing Home Sales beat expectations in July with a 2.5% gain to 5.42 million units annualized. Month’s supply slipped to 4.2, about normal. The median price fell 1.6% to $280,800, a figure 4.3% higher than a year ago. All regions advanced except the Northeast which slipped 2.9%.

With cheap easy Wall Street money drying up, onerous debt levels and 90% well depletion rates in 3-5 years the tight oil miracle in the US is showing it’s Achilles Heal. Namely an inability to generate profits due to high drilling, production and exploration costs. Oil inventories slipped again in the latest period per the Energy Information Agency or EIA. Gasoline and distillate inventories advanced slightly. Net oil demand was 3.1% higher than a year ago. Expectations are that demand will rise modestly going forward as the global economy avoids a recession.

Standard and Poors 500 Index closed at: 2,924.43 up 23.92
NASDAQ finished the day: 8,020.21 up 71.65
Gold ended trading at: $1,512.60 down $3.10


Strong Finish

Despite an extremely volatile week the major averages managed to hold up fairly well, with a strong finish Friday
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Closed Mixed

A volatile session following yesterday’s drubbing saw the major averages closed mixed on generally positive data.
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Savagely Reinverting

The major averages tank as the lamestream media tells everyone not to panic. Considering valuation, margin debt, the yield curve savagely reinverting and,
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Trade War

The major averages plunge one day on trade war fears. Only to surge the next on yet another rumored delay on increasing tariffs on Chinese imports.
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Curve Reinverts

The major averages begin the week with brutal losses as nothing matters seems to be giving way to everything matters. With the yield curve reinverting
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Indexes Gain

For the week the Standard and Poors 500 Index gained 20.58 points or .7%, while the NASDAQ advanced 135.81 points or 1.74%.
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Market Volatility

The major averages closed with modest gains on little news as market volatility continues to take center stage as the age of globalization nears its end.
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Cut Interest Rates

The major averages closed mixed despite some surprise data. New Zealand, India and Thailand all cut interest rates, as the Treasury curve reinverted.
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Everything Is Great

The major averages closed with large gains erasing almost all of yesterday’s losses as once again nothing matters, and everything is great.
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Markets Plunge

With the USA branding China a currency manipulator and the rhetoric over the trade war escalating dramatically the major averages plunged.
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Caleb Lawrence

Registered Investment Adviser

5321 Scotts Valley Drive
Suite #202
Scotts Valley, CA 95066

Local: (831) 334-5318

After nearly 19 years of live radio it was time to move on to new projects. My daily economic update can still be found on my Blog and the I-Tunes and Google Play stores as a podcast. Or you can call my office 831-334-5318 and take advantage of my still “free” after 20+ years initial consultation.  Usually about an hour, will have an opportunity to get to know each other better and address your specific concerns on a one to one basis.