Market Bull

Broken Support

Broken Support

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The Market Bull – December 7, 2018

A brutal week for stocks saw the major averages break through significant support levels. Should they fail to regain them early next week, the selling could get ugly. Since Monday the Standard and Poors 500 Index has lost 158 points or 5.7%, while the NASDAQ fell 517 points or 6.9%.

The official Bureau of Labor Statistics or BLS employment report for November missed significantly with just 155,000 new jobs. October and September were revised lower by a combined 29,000.

The official unemployment rate was unchanged at a very low 3.7%. Average weekly hours slipped fractionally to 34.4. Average earnings increased .2%. the labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.9%, more or less where it has been for some time now. Lost in all the hoopla about rising wages and a very low 3.7% unemployment rate is that fact that the participation rate isn’t increasing and remains far below its pre-bust high. This suggests that people just flat out don’t want a steady job, or that they have found other means to support themselves.

Wholesale trade fell .2% in October. Inventories continued their relentless march higher for a 4th consecutive month with a .8% gain.

On another jump in durable goods inventories as companies continue to attempt to stay ahead of the looming jump in tariffs to 25%. While this has been put on hold for 90-days with the latest trade war truce, I don’t expect it to last.

Standard and Poors 500 Index closed at: 2,633.08 down 62.87
NASDAQ finished at: 6969.25 down 219.01
Gold ended trading at: $1,253.90 up 10.30

This is Caleb Lawrence Registered Investment Adviser I can be reached directly 831-334-5318 or stop by my office 5321 Scotts Valley Drive in the Scotts Valley Plaza, Suite 202, Scotts Valley, Ca, 95066.

Additional writings, and other entries are also available on my Blog at www.clinvestments.com

Advisory services offered through Caleb Lawrence Registered Investment Adviser Inc.

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No Fear Yet

Stocks and crypto currencies get hammered again. Significant technical support levels are close, no panic yet as volatility spikes, but it’s close.

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Stocks Down Again

The major averages end another volatile week in the red. Industrial production misses. September TIC flows +30.8 billion, stocks sold off again.

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Stocks Gain

The major averages shrugged off their early losses to finish with modest gains. Retails sales gain .8%. Trade prices increase. Oil cost data doesn’t add up.

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Tech and Crypto Fall

The major averages couldn’t hold their early gains closing with modest losses. CPI gains in October but the numbers don’t add up, just like the PPI.

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Oil Goes Bear

Stock finish a volatile day mixed. Debt does indeed matter. Deficit spending crowds out productive investment and produces dangerous asset bubbles.

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Tech Gets Hit Again

In terms of dollars, the FANGMAN stocks have lost $710 billion from their combined market cap peak on August 31, having plunged 15.3% from $4.63 trillion to $3.92 trillion

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Debt Does Matter

Contrary to popular beliefs, debt does matter. When debt growth consistently exceeds economic growth over time the result is 3 consecutive destabilizing asset bubbles.

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Large Losses

The major averages plunged to begin the week on little news. Q-3 Senior Loan Officer Survey shows loosening standards and slowing demand.

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Caleb Lawrence

Registered Investment Adviser

5321 Scotts Valley Drive
Suite #202
Scotts Valley, CA 95066

Toll Free: (888) 742-4744
Local: (831) 334-5318

After nearly 19 years of live radio it was time to move on to new projects. My daily economic update can still be found on my Blog and the I-Tunes and Google Play stores as a podcast. Or you can call my office 831-334-5318 and take advantage of my still “free” after 20+ years initial consultation.  Usually about an hour, will have an opportunity to get to know each other better and address your specific concerns on a one to one basis.