Market Bull

New Record High

New Record High
The Market Bull 2019

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The Market Bull – April 17, 2019

The major averages finish with small losses despite the NASDAQ hitting a new all-time record intraday high on disappointing but not overly significant data.

The Fed’s Beige Book on regional economic activity reported economic growth was slight to moderate in the latest period ending in early April. Consumer spending was mixed while general retailers and auto dealerships reported weak sales. Home sales were reported as robust, but some weakness was noted in higher priced homes. The labor market remains tight, while agriculture was weak partly because of the recent storms and flooding in the Midwest.

The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly index fell 3.5% last week as refi’s slipped 8.2% and purchase apps gained .9%. The 30-year contract rate for a jumbo loan increased for a 2nd week to 4.33%.

The trade deficit shrank for a second month in February falling 1.7 billion to 49.4 billion. Exports advanced 1.1% to 209.7 billion, while imports increased .2% to 259.1 billion. Oil imports spent a 5th consecutive month below 3 billion. That said significant headwinds with respect to trade remain including tariffs, Boeing’s 737 Max issues, and a slowing global economy that is seeing sharply falling international trade flows.

Wholesale trade advanced just .2% in February its weakest showing in 7-months. Strength was seen in Non-Durable goods inventories, while sales of Non-Durable Goods also advanced. The inventory to sales ratio was unchanged at a relatively high 1.35 months.

Standard and Poors 500 Index closed at: 2,900.45 down 6.61
NASDAQ finished the day: 7,996.08 down 4.15
Gold ended trading at: $1,276.20 down $1.00

Global Trade

Volatile early trade sent the major averages into the close with small gains. The global trade and political pictures continue to deteriorate.

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Nothing Matters

Uneven economic data sent the major averages into the close mixed. As the markets seem to be returning to their nothing matters routine once again.

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Large Gains

The major averages closed with large gains to begin the week on mixed economic data as the dysfunctional political parade continues.

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Modest Gains

The major averages closed with modest gains. Since Monday the S and P 500 Index is up 38 points or 1.36%, while the NASDAQ has gained 110 points or 1.44%.

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2018 Final GDP

Generally disappointing but not overly significant data sent the major averages into the close with small gains, following volatile early trade.

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Russia Collusion

The major averages couldn’t hold their opening gains on mixed news closing with small losses as the Russia collusion story seemingly refuses to die.

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Mueller Report

Pleased with the Mueller Report the major averages closed with modest gains despite some disappointing economic data.

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10-Year Inverts

The major averages finished the day about even as the yield curve inverts out to 10-years. Mueller’s report hits the wires disappointing many.

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Bad To Worse

The major averages crashed badly Friday closing out the week with modest losses on a raft of negative data. The yield curve inverts further.

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Negative Data

Despite considerable negative data about Brexit, the trade war, and a half-inverted yield curve. The major averages finished with solid gains.

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Caleb Lawrence

Registered Investment Adviser

5321 Scotts Valley Drive
Suite #202
Scotts Valley, CA 95066

Local: (831) 334-5318

After nearly 19 years of live radio it was time to move on to new projects. My daily economic update can still be found on my Blog and the I-Tunes and Google Play stores as a podcast. Or you can call my office 831-334-5318 and take advantage of my still “free” after 20+ years initial consultation.  Usually about an hour, will have an opportunity to get to know each other better and address your specific concerns on a one to one basis.