Market Bull

Strong Finish

Strong Finish
The Market Bull 2019

00:00 / 2:24

The Market Bull – August 16, 2019

Despite an extremely volatile week the major averages managed to hold up fairly well, with a strong finish Friday. For the week the Standard and Poors 500 index lost 20.39 points or.7%, while the NASDAQ lost 10.90 points or a fraction of a percent. Surprising results all things considered.

Construction activity missed expectations in July after Starts fell 4% to 1.191 million units annualized. Permits fared better with an 8.4% advance to 1.336 million units annualized. Despite some ups and downs this series hasn’t really gone anywhere for almost a year.

The 2nd Quarter Services Survey Data portend optimism for second-quarter GDP revisions. U.S. selected services’ total revenue for the second quarter of 2019 was up 1.3% from the previous quarter and up 5.4% from a year earlier. While consumer spending accounts for some 70% of total economic activity, much of that goes on services. An encouraging report, something that has been hard to find of late.

While I don’t put much on various consumer sentiment surveys for a number of reasons. Recent market volatility and the on again, off again, trade war with the Chinese and other trading partners is beginning to take its toll. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for August fell 6.3 points to 92.1 in August. Weakness was noted in expectations. Inflation assumptions remain fairly modest, just under 3%, despite considerable history showing inflation to be running about 2% for a number of years now.

Standard and Poors 500 Index closed at: 2,888.35 up 40.75
NASDAQ finished the day: 7,894.27 up 127.65
Gold ended trading at: $1,522.60 down 8.60


A Bruising Week

The major averages closed with modest losses on mixed economic data. A bruising week for stocks rattled by failure of the trade talks and monetary policy
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Trump Threatens

The major averages closed with large losses on disappointing news and another trade war escalation as Trump threatens more and larger tariffs again.
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Fed Rate Cut

The Fed’s modest rate cut, end to balance sheet tapering and collapse in Chinese trade war talks. Saw the major averages close with large losses.
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Interest Rates

The major averages finished with small losses despite generally positive data ahead of tomorrow’s decision on interest rates that should see a ¼% cut.
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Stocks Mixed

The major averages begin the week mixed on little news. Another attempt at resolving the Chinese trade war is likely to go nowhere, again.
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Modest Gains

The major averages closed with modest gains on better than expected data. Since Monday the S&P 500 is up 1.46%, the NASDAQ gained 2.06%.
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Earnings Season

The major averages closed with modest losses on mixed data. Earnings season is off to an uneven start with some notable misses, Tesla, and beats.
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Poor Economic Data

The major averages closed mixed on poor economic data. Yet another attempt to resolve the trade war with China is in the works.
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Large Gains

The major averages closed with large gains on disappointing domestic economic news seemingly unconcerned about international events.
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Small Gains

The major averages finish with small gains to start the week seemingly unconcerned about Iran seizing two British tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
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Caleb Lawrence

Registered Investment Adviser

5321 Scotts Valley Drive
Suite #202
Scotts Valley, CA 95066

Local: (831) 334-5318

After nearly 19 years of live radio it was time to move on to new projects. My daily economic update can still be found on my Blog and the I-Tunes and Google Play stores as a podcast. Or you can call my office 831-334-5318 and take advantage of my still “free” after 20+ years initial consultation.  Usually about an hour, will have an opportunity to get to know each other better and address your specific concerns on a one to one basis.