The Market Bull – January 16, 2020
Hot on the heels of the trade deal with the Chinese. Trumps articles of impeachment get sent to the Senate as the trial officially gets underway.
The Philadelphia Fed jumped 14.6 points in January, shattering expectations on fairly broad-based gains. Price data increased. With the passing of the trade agreement with Canada, Mexico and the US, the outlook for manufacturing is improving. That said the phase two deal with the Chinese is likely to prove difficult to achieve as both sides still hold substantial differences.
Import prices gained .3% in December on a large jump in energy costs. On a year ago basis import prices advanced .5% the first positive figure in many months. Export prices slipped .2% for the month and .7% on a year ago basis extending a string of falling price data for this series. Absent tariffs and trade price data would be considerably softer, though this would primarily show up in the Consumer and Producer Price Indexes as tariffs and duties aren’t measured by this series.
Retail sales advanced a better than expected .3% in December so there is hope for the holiday shopping season yet despite some negative guidance and results from some big box retailers of late. Sales at gasoline stations, clothing stores and building supply centers were particularly strong. Motor vehicle and parts sales were weak for the month. On a year ago basis sales gained a respectable 5.8%.
The Treasury International Capital Flows or TIC Report advanced for a 3rd consecutive month in November posting a 22.9 billion Dollar gain. Agency bonds proved popular once again and to a lesser extent equities and corporate bonds. Treasury notes and bonds sold off for a 4th consecutive month.
Standard and Poors 500 Index closed at: 3,316.81 up 27.52
NASDAQ finished the day: 9,357.13 up 98.44
Gold ended trading at: $1,553.50 down $.50
The House voted to impeach Trump as expected, setting up a Senate trial all but certain to fail on party lines. Stocks shrugged off the news closing higher.
The major averages finish about even on little real news. Trumps impeachment goes to the Senate where it will most likely end.
Positive economic and tax data helped the major averages close with small gains. Boeing halts 737 production and college admissions slip for an 8th year.
The major averages begin the week with modest gains on little real news. Talk of a trade deal settlement and impeachment goes quiet.
Another verbal trade agreement with the Chinese failed to inspire the markets dragged down by disappointing economic data.
The major averages close with large gains on yet another rumored trade war deal. The Fed left rates unchanged, but its balance sheet jumps on Repo activity.
The major averages closed with small gains after a volatile session. Talk of another trade war settlement makes the rounds, for what it’s worth.
The major averages close about even unable to hold their early gains as uncertainty reins with the trade war, Brexit and impeachment center stage.
The major averages couldn’t hold their early gains finishing with small losses on little news as concerns about a slowing economy grow.
The major averages closed with large gains on better than expected data. The Fed continues to flood the Repo Market.