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The Market Bull 2019

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The Market Bull – January 24, 2019

The Kansas City Fed regional index gained 2-points to 5 in January. The details were unremarkable, price data continues to moderate.

The comments section of the survey provided some interesting insights regarding the government shutdown that were overwhelmingly negative referencing delays of data, lower consumer confidence, and an inability to export because of the closure of certain agencies. Other comments mentioned rising interest rates and the trade spat with China as ongoing concerns. More examples of our pathetic leadership that is veering towards economically ruinous.

Southern California port traffic data shows imports continuing to increase as they have done since late 2016 with a 1.3% gain on a rolling 12 month basis, while exports continue to flat-line of drift slightly lower following a trend that dates to 2012 as they fell .8% on a rolling 12 month basis.

Weekly initial claims for unemployment hit a 50-year low of 199,000 during the week of January 19 on a seasonally adjusted basis. The 4-week moving average slipped 5,500 to 215,000. Another milestone along the road of how great the economy is and yet in my 53-years of living I have never seen so many shanty towns.

The Chemical Activity Barometer fell .3% in January on a 3-month moving average basis, though it remains .8% higher than a year ago. A reflection of industrial activity that makes up about 18% of total economic activity. So overall it is not very significant until you get 3 negative months in a row.

Standard and Poors 500 Index closed at: 2,642.33 up 3.63
NASDAQ finished the day: 7,073.46 up 47.69
Gold ended trading at: $1,280.00 down $4.00


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