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Household spending expectations have been trending lower for quite some time along with income.  Of late, the recent gains in income are starting to show up in increased spending expectations, particularly at the higher income levels and to a lesser extent the medium income levels as well.  The low end income tier has shown an arrested decline.  That said, with the exception of the high income tier spending growth expectations are at best flat.

The difference between GAAP or Generally Accepted Accounting Practices, or how a business is supposed to keep its books and non-GAAP, or the endless parade of one-off and assorted other creative accounting tricks that help corporate America put lipstick on the pig. Has reached near crisis levels drawing the attention of pundits and regulators alike as the attempt to mute the slide in revenues and profits looks to reach a 6th and 5th quarter respectively pushing real profit margins to 10-year lows.  Data points such as this suggest that the odds of a market crisis are not only very high, but that they have grown substantially in the last year or so as the stress wrought by rising unit labor costs, falling productivity and declining sales is substantial.

This is Caleb Lawrence Registered Investment Adviser Scotts Valley Drive and Willis Road in the Scotts Valley Plaza, Suite 202 or call me toll free at 888-RICH PIG / 888-742-4744.

You can catch me on the radio at noon each business day as well on California’s central coast.  KPIG 107.5 FM in the Monterey Bay or KPYG 94.9 FM in San Luis Obispo.

Rebroadcasts, additional writings and other entries are also available on my Blog at www.clinvestments.com

Advisory services offered through Caleb Lawrence Registered Investment Adviser Inc.

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