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Renewed Trade War Settlement Hopes
The Market Bull 2019

 
 
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The Market Bull – November 25, 2019

The major averages finish with modest gains on renewed trade war settlement hopes, despite disappointing economic data.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index plunged to -.71 in October, while the 3-month moving average slipped to -.31. With -.7 generally considered a recession this is cause for concern despite the volatile nature of this series from one month to the next. So, it’s better to look at the 3-month moving average something that has been in the red for 9-consecutive months. Declines were broad based and included an impact from the General Motors strike. Another good reason to follow the 3-month moving average.

The Texas Regional Manufacturing Index advanced a better than expected 3.8 points to -1.3 in November. Despite little improvement in the various sub-components.

Online retail continues to grow at a rapid pace jumping 17.3% in the third quarter from a year ago to 145.7 billion per data from the Commerce Department. In Dollar terms this advance is the largest ever for the series dating to inception in the late 90’s. Overall retail sales are doing just fine with 4% year ago growth to 1.38 trillion in the 3rd quarter. With the trend to ever more online sales picking up traditional brick and mortar retail is getting crushed with 2019 on track for another all-time record year of bankruptcies and store closures.

Standard and Poors 500 Index closed at: 3,133.64 up 23.35
NASDAQ finished the day: 8,632.49 up 112.60
Gold ended trading at: $1,455.10 down $8.50

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