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Registered Investment Adviser Caleb Lawrence

 Volatile early trade that seems to be a feature of the markets of late, sent the major averages into the final hour about even.

The wholesale price measuring Producer Price Index advanced .1% in June on meaningful gains in unprocessed goods prices. On a year ago basis prices fell again to a 2% annualized rate.

Despite all the chatter about how strong the economic recovery is another data point at odds with the official narrative is tax receipts. Recent data from the Congressional Budget Office shows that tax receipts are running some 3% below projections since the beginning of the year, or about 60 billion shy. States, particularly California are also reporting that tax revenues are coming in below expectations as well. Lackluster tax receipts will complicate the looming Federal budget showdown later this summer which will provide Republicans an opportunity to demonstrate just how serious they are about deficit spending, or has the last several years been all about political grandstanding.


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