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Registered Investment Adviser Caleb Lawrence

Another day of volatile trade despite little news sends the major averages into the final hour with small gains following early losses. The Kansas City Fed regional index increased 3 points to 11 in June on gains in production and employment, most all other sub-components fell.

Despite the endless narrative about the recovery and how strong the economy is finding data points that cast significant doubt on the official story isn’t difficult. A recent piece on The Hill and using tax receipt data from the National Association of State Budget Officers found that for fiscal 2017 thirty-three states will miss revenue projections, the highest level since 2010 as revenues come up short by a combined 12 billion with more than half due to falling sales tax receipts considered one of the more stable state revenue sources. Personal and corporate income tax collections are also lower than last year. 23 states, made mid-year budget cuts in Fiscal Year 2017, a number that has grown steadily since 2014 when just 8 states made budget cuts.

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