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Registered Investment Adviser Caleb Lawrence

After opening slightly lower on little real news the major averages enter the final hour with modest losses.  The Richmond Fed regional index advanced 6 points in June to 7 on gains in new orders and inventories.

Reis reports that the Apartment Vacancy rate increased again in the 2nd quarter reaching 4.4%.  Rents gained 1.1% for the quarter and 3.3% from a year ago.
Despite high-frequency economic growth forecasts at 3% or better for the 2nd quarter.

The IMF or International Monetary Fund has cut its estimates for 2017 Gross Domestic Product or GDP to just 2.1% in the USA.  When the initial estimates for the 2nd quarter came out at nearly 5% I noted at the time that we would be lucky to achieve half that.  Given the sub 2% GDP trend of late and the first quarters 2.1% the latest reduced estimate from the IMF of 2.1% for the year could prove difficult to achieve especially if the incoming data remains soft, or deteriorates further.  The IMF went on to cast doubt about the Trump administrations plans to increase economic growth to 3% annualized figuring that in fact it would decline slowly from its already low levels over the next few years.


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