Registered Investment Adviser Caleb Lawrence
The major averages struggled in early trade on little real news though Consumer Credit missed again. Major announcements are due later today on trade with China and the Iranian nuclear deal.
Consumer credit missed expectations substantially in March gaining just 11.7 billion, a 6-month low. Revolving or credit card debt was negative for a second month with balances falling 2.6 billion. Non-revolving debt largely student and auto loans increased 14.2 billion for the month. On a year ago basis credit growth fell to just 3.6%. It’s worth noting that the Chinese credit impulse has slowed dramatically as well recently.
The Trump bounce that peaked in late January has given way to markets that can’t seem to regain their upward momentum despite record corporate share buy backs and a 1st quarter earnings season that is looking like one for the record books. TD Ameritrade’s Investor Movement Index or IMX, has plunged since January falling by nearly half and going from wildly bullish to about average in just 4-month’s. It’s worth noting that this series isn’t based just on sentiment, but includes the actual positions and trading patterns of Ameritrade client accounts.