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Registered Investment Adviser Caleb Lawrence 

The major averages enter the final hour with small losses on generally positive data. Unable to build on Trumps Tax Plan as it passed its first hurdle on its way to more debt financed handouts for corporations and the 1%, with the usual drivel about tax cuts stimulate growth. The Standard and Poors 500 Index is essentially unchanged since Monday while the NASDAQ is up 62 points or almost 1%.

Construction activity shattered expectations in October when starts jumped 13.7% to 1.29 million units annualized. Permits increased 5.9% to 1.297 million units annualized. That said Starts have slipped 6 of the last 8-months and Permits have fallen 4 of the last 8-months so neither is a picture of strength despite the hurricane inspired bounce.

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey fell 7 points in November to 16 on broad based declines.

The history of the Federal Reserve, aka the Bankster Reserve as there is nothing “Federal” about it save the name, created in secrecy on Jekyll Island in 1913 ostensibly to serve the public interest with a safer, more flexible and stable monetary and financial system. Has instead brought us 3 horrible financial crises 1929, 2000 and 2007, with another waiting in the wings. Inflated away over 90% of the value of the dollar and blown ginormous debts pushing 21 trillion Dollars. From 1913 to 1971 Federal Debt hit 400 billion, 1971 to 1981 saw an additional 600 billion, reaching a Trillion Dollars for the first time. 1981 to 1997 saw the addition of 4.4 Trillion. 1997 to 2017 brought another 15.2 Trillion and counting, see a pattern here? This year, the US will pay out about $500 billion on nearly $21 trillion in debt…assuming a 2% interest rate. Given that these debts are effectively unpayable without the magic of a printing press you have to wonder where it is going to end. Add state, local and private sector debt and higher interest rates are a non-starter as bankruptcy will follow. Keep on borrowing and a repeat of the 2007-2009 crisis will occur at some point, absent some new miracle, emphasis on the “miracle” part, economic paradigm. It is not just us as this is true for most all of the G-20 countries, primarily western developed economies plus China and Japan. All of which will put an exclamation mark at the end of the fallacious “Debt doesn’t matter.” statement, because frankly if that were true we wouldn’t need bankruptcy courts, laws or debt collectors for starters.


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