Registered Investment Adviser Caleb Lawrence
The major averages struggled to begin the week on little real news entering the final hour about even. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index or CFNAI gained .54 in September to +.17 on broad based strength. The 3-month moving average was unchanged at -.16. A volatile series that covers about 80% of the economy. Like the Fed’s Beige Book on reginal economic conditions it continues to show moderate economic growth and nothing really remarkable one way or another.
While still in broad outline basis and no doubt facing substantial wrangling over the details in Congress Trumps tax plan looks to add to the deficits with 5.8 Trillion in new tax cuts directed at individuals and corporations about 50/50. Taxes would be increased by 3.8 Trillion primarily on individual taxpayers. The resulting deficit addition of 2.2 Trillion with interest comes out to 2.7 Trillion. With most details missing and almost total ineffectiveness of the Trump administration to date regarding meaningful policy, will have to wait and see what, if anything is actually achieved.