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Registered Investment Adviser Caleb Lawrence

The major averages enter the final hour with small gains, on little news of significance. Wholesale inventories advanced .3% in September, a 5th consecutive increase. Retail inventories fell 1%, the first decline in 5-months.

The International Trade Balance increased 1.2 billion in September to
-64.1 billion. Imports gained 1.7 billion, exports advanced .9 billion. Trade policy, and the Hurricanes are likely to weigh on this series going forward.

Pending home sales fell for a 3rd consecutive month in September down 3.5% from a year ago on broad based weakness particularly in the South.

The Kansas City Fed regional index gained a point in September to 17, on strength in employment, new orders fell 15 points to 10.

Warren Buffet stated in 2001 that the best single measure of valuation at any given time is Market Cap to Gross Domestic Product or GDP. Currently this ratio stands at 130% using the Wilshire 5000 total market index. In 2007 this ratio hit 105% and in 2000 it reached the all-time record high of 137%. This is one of the few valuation metrics that isn’t at an all-time record high, but it’s very close.


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