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Tariff Escalation
The Market Bull 2019

 
 
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The Market Bull – February 25, 2019

The major averages close with small gains on generally disappointing economic data. The Standard and Poors 500 Index hits a critical triple top and faces a significant test of its ability to go higher. The 25% Chinese tariff escalation gets postponed again. After both sides announced, “significant progress”. Will see if the matter can be settled in the next couple of weeks.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index plunged .7 points in January to -.43. The 3-month moving average slipped .16 to zero. A large decline was noted in industrial activity.

A volatile series so one month means little. When the 3-month moving average reaches -.7 a recession is usually present.

Wholesale inventories increased again in January rising 1.1% on a big jump in durable goods inventories.

Sales fell for a 3rd consecutive month down 1% on a large decline in non-durable sales. With rising inventories and falling sales the inventory to sales ratio continues to expand reaching a fairly high 1.33%.

The Texas Manufacturing Index continues to bounce back from its brief trip into the red gaining 12.1 points in February to 13.1 on strength in employment. Price data was mixed but remains fairly moderate.

Standard and Poors 500 Index closed at: 2,796.11 up 3.44
NASDAQ finished the day: 7,554.46 up 26.92
Gold ended trading at: $1,329.40 down $3.40

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