The Market Bull – January 16, 2020
Hot on the heels of the trade deal with the Chinese. Trumps articles of impeachment get sent to the Senate as the trial officially gets underway.
The Philadelphia Fed jumped 14.6 points in January, shattering expectations on fairly broad-based gains. Price data increased. With the passing of the trade agreement with Canada, Mexico and the US, the outlook for manufacturing is improving. That said the phase two deal with the Chinese is likely to prove difficult to achieve as both sides still hold substantial differences.
Import prices gained .3% in December on a large jump in energy costs. On a year ago basis import prices advanced .5% the first positive figure in many months. Export prices slipped .2% for the month and .7% on a year ago basis extending a string of falling price data for this series. Absent tariffs and trade price data would be considerably softer, though this would primarily show up in the Consumer and Producer Price Indexes as tariffs and duties aren’t measured by this series.
Retail sales advanced a better than expected .3% in December so there is hope for the holiday shopping season yet despite some negative guidance and results from some big box retailers of late. Sales at gasoline stations, clothing stores and building supply centers were particularly strong. Motor vehicle and parts sales were weak for the month. On a year ago basis sales gained a respectable 5.8%.
The Treasury International Capital Flows or TIC Report advanced for a 3rd consecutive month in November posting a 22.9 billion Dollar gain. Agency bonds proved popular once again and to a lesser extent equities and corporate bonds. Treasury notes and bonds sold off for a 4th consecutive month.
Standard and Poors 500 Index closed at: 3,316.81 up 27.52
NASDAQ finished the day: 9,357.13 up 98.44
Gold ended trading at: $1,553.50 down $.50