The Market Bull – November 14, 2019
It would seem that the markets care little about the trade war, Trump’s impeachment, or the ongoing dramas with the Repo market, closing about even.
The October Consumer Price Index or CPI jumped a much more than expected .4% on large gains in energy costs. On a year ago basis the CPI increased slightly to 1.8%, about where it has been for the last 6-months. There is little remarkable in this month’s report and as has been the case for quite some time now inflation is largely being driven by the energy complex.
The wholesale price measuring Producer Price Index or PPI gained .4% in October, slightly more than expectations. Energy and food prices drove the advance as the year ago rate fell sharply hitting just 1% a 3-year low.
Despite a more than 50-year low unemployment rate, record debt levels are starting to drive loan defaults and delinquencies higher with sub-prime auto loans being the first to display notable stress. Seriously delinquent auto loans more than 90-days past due reached a new 8-year high of 62 billion Dollars in the 3rd quarter as per the New York Fed.
Total auto loans and leases reached a record 1.32 trillion in the 3rd quarter. Of this total some 4.71% was seriously delinquent 90-days or more past due, the highest figure since late 2011. While the serious delinquency rate remains some .56% below the all time record high set in late 2010. The macro economic and business cycle conditions then were far worse than they are today. Indeed, if the pundits are to be believed the economy is positively booming, making this data set all the more incongruous.
Standard and Poors 500 Index closed at: 3,096.63 up 2.59
NASDAQ finished the day: 8,479.02 down 3.08
Gold ended trading at: $1,471.60 up $8.30