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In what is now a well-worn trend advance estimates of quarterly Gross Domestic Product or GDP start out looking respectable in the 2-3% range only to be revised lower as the quarter progresses coming in around 1% or so over the last few quarters. The 3rd quarter of this year is no exception, GDP growth was originally pegged at 2.9% by the New York Fed it has now been cut to 2.3%. Looking at the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model and the initial estimate was for 3.6% growth it is now down to 2.9%. Based on my best guess and the incoming data, 3rd quarter economic growth will struggle to beat 2%.


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