Global trade volumes have been declining steadily for some time now looking at Asian trade flows and some marked declines have been recorded by China whose exports have fallen steadily since mid-2010 and have been contracting for the last year or so. Chinese imports show a similar pattern. Import and export data has also fallen sharply for South Korea, Singapore, Indonesia, Taiwan and Hong Kong to name a few. In fact, trade declines have become more pronounced as this year has progressed despite a Trillion Dollars in new Chinese credit issued in the first quarter. The inevitable diminishing returns of a late stage credit bubble. Something we have been incredibly successful at resetting right here in the US of A. Unless it really is different this time the end will be the same as before except that the system and the participants have far less ability to absorb the negative results gracefully this time around.
This is Caleb Lawrence Registered Investment Adviser Inc. Scotts Valley Drive and Willis Road in the Scotts Valley Plaza, Suite 202 or call me toll free at 888-RICH PIG / 888-742-4744.
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