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While traditional long-term buy and hold investing works very well in a cyclical bull market, the last one ended in early 2000. The current bear market cycle has yet to complete. Bear markets require an active, as opposed to passive, investment management strategy. Strategies that are designed to capitalize on the ever-shifting investment opportunities available. The famous Ibbotson Study on asset allocation showed that 91.5% of a portfolio’s investment return was attributable to the allocation model used, the other 8.5% was put down to luck, timing and investment selection.
In order for this to be true, and it is, you have to have 30-40 years. Coincidentally this is enough time to go through a complete bull/bear market cycle. Most folks don’t get serious about saving and investing for their future until their late 40’s or early 50’s, and basic asset allocation says age and fixed income should choose conservative investments. I take issue with this particular philosophy.
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