Or how about new 52-week highs this week for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices seemingly uninterested in either fight or flight. Preferring instead to focus on solid earnings numbers led by the technology sector, Intel and Tesla in particular. With 28% of the S&P 500 companies having reported 1st quarter results so far. Earnings are tracking an impressive 15.1% growth rate on an accelerating trend. Revenue growth, not to be outdone. Is showing double digits as well with 10.3% growth so far this quarter. Solid numbers to be sure. Despite the war with Iran approaching its 2nd month. As the blockade continues, a 3rd US flattop showed up for the party, but overall, the fighting has quieted down considerably. As the interested parties try to find a solution at the negotiating table despite their still considerable differences.
1973 Energy Crisis Repeat?
All sorts of dire predictions were made regarding global energy and fertilizer supplies at the beginning of the war. With pundits noting a 25% or so drop in energy supplies and predictions of a global famine sparked by a lack of fertilizer. While also predicting ruinous spikes in inflation. Certainly, evidence of all these concerns can be found. Once again, the doom and gloom pundits seemed to have overplayed their hands predicting far more dire consequences than seen, at least so far.
Party Like It’s 1999
American consumers continue to spend with enthusiasm. Retail sales jumped a far better than expected 1.7% in March and 4% in the last 12-months. Driven by strong gains to personal income and continued market advances. That seemed to alleviate growing concerns over AI driven job losses. After Microsoft and Meta both announced significant headcount reductions this week.
Who’s The Chairman?
The drama over the next Federal Reserve Chairman and construction cost overruns with the ongoing Federal Reserve remodel. Took a dramatic turn after it was announced that the DOJ criminal investigation of current chairman Jerome Powell would be dropped. Replaced by a Federal Reserve Inspector General scrutiny of the now notorious cost overruns on the project. Standard political horse trading writ large. As the nomination of Kevin Warsh, Powell’s successor advanced out of the Senate as part of the deal.
Enjoy your weekend folks, I’ll be back next Friday.
Best, Caleb
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