Market Ride

Grab your favorite beverage and let’s chat about this week’s market ride—nothing too flashy. Just the kind of stuff well travelled investors have seen cycle through a few times. It’s been one of those weeks where the big-picture optimism from geopolitics and tech kept the engines humming. With some bumps to reminded us that trees don’t grow to the sky. We’re talking early June 2026 here, with the S&P 500 and friends pushing records before a bit of a reality check toward the end. For the week the S&P 500 lost 196 points or 2.59%, the NASDAQ gave up 1,264 points or 4.69% while the DOW slipped 165 points or .32%.

Iran Again

First off, the geopolitical easing around Iran and oil felt like a collective sigh of relief for portfolios. After tensions had crude spiking toward triple digits earlier. Hopes for a ceasefire extension or resolution in the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices sliding nicely. Down around 20% from recent peaks in some stretches. That took pressure off inflation worries, gave consumers a break at the pump, and let risk assets breathe easier. Markets loved it, with stocks rallying on the news as if someone flipped a switch from “worry” to “party.” Of course, these things can shift fast. Trump’s comments kept everyone on their toes. But the net effect was a tailwind that helped equities extend gains early in the week.

It’s The Economy

Closely tied to that was the stronger-than-expected jobs report dropping on Friday. Nonfarm payrolls came in hot—around 172k for May, beating forecasts—while unemployment held steady near 4.3%. On the surface, great news for the economy’s resilience, right? But Wall Street did its classic “good news is bad news” dance because it dialed down bets on near-term Fed rate cuts. Higher-for-longer rates? That’s the hawkish vibe that could keep borrowing costs elevated, pressuring valuations in rate-sensitive sectors. A reminder that a robust labor market is generally bullish long-term, but it complicates the soft-landing narrative we’ve been riding. Yields popped on the data, and it contributed to some late-week jitters.

Is AI Going To Eat My Lunch

Then there’s the AI and tech story, which dominated as usual but showed some cracks. Nvidia kept the spotlight with its new superchip unveiling, powering gains early on, while the sector as a whole has been the market’s engine. But Broadcom’s earnings disappointed relative to sky-high expectations—AI revenue was strong, yet guidance didn’t blow minds enough, sending shares and peers tumbling mid-to-late week. The Nasdaq felt it, with a noticeable pullback as some rotation happened into other areas. It’s classic: the AI boom isn’t dead, but profit-taking after a massive run is healthy. Speaking of big tech moments, all eyes are on the impending SpaceX IPO—set to price around $135/share for a potential record $75 billion raise, with trading eyed for mid-June under SPCX. This one’s a beast: valuation north of $1.7 trillion, Musk’s control intact, and massive buzz from retail and institutions alike.

Tying It All Up

Rounding things out, the broader market tone stayed constructive despite the late-week tech wobble. The S&P notched records early, riding the ninth straight weekly gain streak into June before snapping it amid the chip selloff. Earnings season wrap-up showed AI supply chain strength broadening out, consumer spending held up, and small caps even got some love. Oil volatility aside, the economy’s chugging along with modest growth, and forward P/Es remain elevated but supported by earnings momentum. At this point, we’ve learned markets love to test nerves—Wall Street panics over strong jobs like it’s the end times, giving me a chuckle knowing resilience beats the alternative. Stay diversified, keep an eye on that Fed path, and maybe tuck away some dry powder for the SpaceX debut if it fits your risk bucket. Overall, not a bad week for the long game—optimism edges out the noise, as it often does.

That’s it for this week. I’ll be back next Friday. Caleb Lawrence