With all the screaming and shouting continuing in the post-election period. I can hardly hear myself think, let alone pay close attention to the voices in my head. Which brings me to this week significant economic and market data. Recession, what recession?
It’s the Economy Stupid!
With 4th quarter GDP tacking +2.6% per the latest data from the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model You have to wonder, recession, what recession?
Goldman Sachs latest estimate of 4th quarter GDP was left unchanged at +2.4%, more or less inline with the Atlanta Fed. The investment went on to revise up its 3rd quarter estimate to +2.9%. As a result 4th quarter final sales are expected to come in at 2%. If you can find a recession in this leave your comment below.
Mortgage Rates
Have hovered in the 7% range for the better part of a month now. For a 30-year conforming loan. Thanks to MortgageNewsDaily for the Chart.
This and still painfully high prices. They are slowly coming down. Is much of the reason why realtor.com reports weekly inventory for sale, up 25.9% from a year ago. Following a 54th consecutive week gains. Even with all the inventory gains the number of homes for sale remains low from a historical perspective. Despite all this California managed to report a small increase in home sales during October of 4.7% for the month and 9.5% from a year ago. Thanks to Wolfstreet and realtor.com for the chart.
I Can Still Charge It, Right?
The latest data from the Federal Reserve shows that 30-day credit card delinquency rates remain very low at 3.2% in the 3rd quarter. A figure less than half the peak of 6.7% seen during the GFC of 2007-2009. As a result, all the talk of a “recession” is, I would think, premature at best. Are there things to be concerned about, of course, and there always will be. The available data just isn’t there at present to support a recession call. Thanks to WolfStreet for the chart.
That’s all for this week folks, I’ll see you again next Friday.
Best, Caleb
Last Week’s Post: The Market Giveth?
Follow me on Social Media
FaceBook: Caleb Lawrence RIA Inc Facebook
LinkedIn: Caleb Lawrence | LinkedIn