Are You Feeling Stressed?

The major averages finished another week in the red, leaving investors feeling stressed. The S&P 500 slipped 15 points or .24%, the NASDAQ lost 104 points or .53% while the DOW fell 246 points or .55%. The January employment report missed expectations significantly with just 143,000 new jobs created. The unemployment rate slipped to 4%. Average weekly hours dipped .2 to 34.1. Average earnings increased .5% for the month and 4.1% from a year ago. November and Decembers employment total were revised up by a combined 100,000. Add it all up and it is an ok, but obviously not great report. The seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment level for March 2024 was revised downward by 589,000. Thanks to calculatedrisk for the chart.

The Chinese Are Coming, Beware of DeepSeek

Leaving more than a few technology pundits feeling stressed. According to the western narrative. China was supposed to purse a consumer driven future. Instead, it opted for an economy based on advanced manufacturing. While pursuing technological development that begins to compete directly with the west. Something the DeepSeek scare drove home. While it is an interesting development, it is not the slayer of western AI many feared initially. At least not yet anyway. Another alarm bell to add to the growing chorus represented by increasingly dominant Chinese technological and manufacturing prowess. Thanks to Deutsche Bank and others for the chart.

Typical Bull Market Behavior

Donald Trump’s first few weeks in office has certainly upped the stress factor for the Democrats. Along with their paid PR Department that is the mainstream media. That said the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index declined to -0.98 in late January a 17-year low. As indicated by the green line in the chart below.

This series is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. From 18 weekly data series: seven interest rate series, six yield spreads, and five other indicators. Each of these components provides insights into different aspects of financial stress. With a value below zero for 96 consecutive weeks. It tells the tale of a durable bull market that shows little if any signs of relenting. Thanks to the Daily number for the chart.