With the Trump administration continuing to move at the speed of chaos, disrupting everything in its path. I begin to wonder about terminal velocity. Tariff induced trade wars come and go in the blink of an eye. The lamestream media begs for a day off because they can’t keep up. Leaving the Democrats in disarray, unable to cope with the blistering rate of change.
What About The Markets?
They don’t like moving at the speed of chaos, right? For the first few weeks of Trump, they struggled to be sure. With Valentine week now in the books. The markets seem to be embracing change. The S&P 500 gained 89 points or 1.48%, the NASDAQ jumped 504 points or 2.58% while the DOW added 243 points of .55%. So apparently, change is good, even when it’s scary.
Inflation Is On The March Again, Or Is It?
Following the recent early year pattern. Inflation is indeed rising again, eyeing 3%, as 2025 gets underway. The regression chart below predicts slightly elevated core PCE inflation of 2.7% in early 2025. Thanks to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas for the Chart.
Is it really on the way to 3%, or just another head fake? There’s no shortage of pundits terrified that Trumps tariffs will spark an inflationary trade war. They could yet be proven correct. It is hard to find conclusive data as the recent economic reports have come in mixed. Suggesting that the Fed is likely to hold its fire this year on interest rate cuts. As it to adjusts to the speed of chaos. Trying not to encourage inflation. The Cleveland Fed year ago Median CPI report for January showed mixed data. With the median CPI slipping .1% to 3.6%. trimmed mean fell .1% to 3.1%, core CPI less food and energy gained .1% to 3.3%. As the chart below shows, despite the little bump this series continues to moderate. Thanks to CalculatedRisk for the chart.
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