After a rough start to the week. The major averages rallied late. Finishing mixed. Since last Fridays close the S&P 500 is up 7 points, essentially unchanged. The NASDAQ gained 113 points for the week or .49%. While the DOW slipped 323 points or .67%.
The Debate Continues
Policy induced economic Armageddon? Or simply a much-needed change of direction for the better. With the government shutdown absence of economic data. Missing reports are starting to be released and much was made of the employment data. Standard operating procedure for the mainstream media that loves to dissect the monthly employment reports. There’s lies, dam lies and statistics according to Mark Twain. Depending on your perspective the data shows a disaster with 172,000 Federal Government job cuts in the last 3-months. Or it’s wonderful news as the private sector created 225,000 jobs in the last 3-months. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics October employment report that included data for September as well. While average monthly job creation remains anemic this year, it has improved somewhat since the summer. Looking at Federal Government, civilian employment shows it has fallen to an 11 year low of 2.74 million. Thanks to WolfStreet for the chart.
Retail Sales Chug Along
Despite the anemic employment growth this year, and slowing but still solid personal income growth. Retail sales, roughly 70% of the economy, remain fairly robust. Coming in unchanged in October but up 3.5% from a year ago. Per the advance data from the Census Bureau.
Weak data to be sure, but one month does not make a trend. Though the naysayers in the main stream media continue to insist that the economy and markets are going to implode any day now. The fact is that they have been stunningly wrong for the better part of a year. With earnings estimates for 2026 starting to hit the tape. FactSet released its preliminary estimate for 2026 today. Expecting the S&P 500 companies to report double digit earnings growth for a 3rd consecutive year.
Have a great weekend everyone! See you next Friday.
Last Week’s Post: Gave a Little Back
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