Markets Are Up

Despite an endless parade negative reporting from the mainstream media. The markets are up again this week. Earnings are on track for another double digit quarter. The world didn’t end when the government shutdown. Mainstream economists and investment houses continue to miss substantially with their economic and market forces. But, hey a broken clock is right twice a day.

Most Economic Data Delayed

Compliments of the government shutdown, but we did have a few notable reports this week. Interest rates continue to slip as evidenced by 3 and 6-month Treasury notes.

The 30-year mortgage fell to just 6.18%, reversing most of the recent bounce. Long bond rates also fell with the 20-year Treasury yield falling to 4.506% at the latest auction. Existing home sales more or less came in as expected during September. While Friday brought a slightly better than expected Consumer Price index or CPI report that gained .3% for the month and 3% from a year ago. To close out a pretty good week.

Not All Roses

The Federal debt continues to march ever higher, in part because of the shutdown. Hitting 38 trillion this month. Just 75 odd days after breaking 37 trillion. More or less matching the trajectory of the previous administration.

Real estate continues to wobble in the face of too high interest rates, despite the recent declines. Significant, because residential real estate tends to lead the economy into and out of recessions. While I do not see or expect a recession anytime soon. It bares watching closely. Condominium price declines are becoming substantial and spreading to an increasing number of Metropolitan Statistical Areas or MSA’s. The top ten declines by percentage and the year of the latest price peak include.

1. Oakland, CA: -28% (2022)
2. Cape Coral, FL: -28% (2024)
3. Austin, TX: -25% (2022)
4. St. Petersburg, FL: -25% (2022)
5. San Francisco, CA: -16% (2022)
6. Jacksonville, FL: -16% (2022)
7. Tampa, FL: -16% (2022)
8. Denver, CO: -15% (2022)
9. Detroit, MI: -15% (2021)
10. Arlington, TX: -15% (2024)

Financial Markets

Posted another solid week with the Standard and Poors 500 up 128 points or 1.92 percent, the NASDAQ advanced 525 points or 2.31 percent, while the DOW gained 1,016 points or 2.2 percent.

That’s all folks! Have a great weekend and I’ll be back next Friday.

Caleb